BACKGROUND
This study examines the chances of the three political parties namely, the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the National Democratic Congress (NDC), and the Liberal Party of Ghana (LPG), to win the Assin North parliamentary seat in the upcoming parliamentary by-election of 27th June 2023. The seat not a typical stronghold hence, the need to survey the views of voters to generate insight about the likely outcome of the by-election. The data for this study were collected over three days by trained enumerators from the 17th to 19th of June 2023.
METHODOLOGY
- This survey was cross-sectional by design.
- Sample size accrued for this study was 503 registered voters in the constituency.
- Confidence level was 95 per cent, with 5 per cent margin of error.
- The study population consisted of all 41,168 registered voter population in the Assin North Constituency based on the 2020 voters’ register.
- A minimum of 35 registered voters were polled per electoral area.
- Assin North has a total of 18 electoral areas of which 14 were randomly selected for data collection.
- Respondents were selected randomly from 14 out of the 18 electoral areas in the constituency.
- Data collection for the study was carried out from 17th June to 19th June 2023.
RESULTS
The table below shows the frequency distribution of respondent by Electoral Area, from a random sample of 14 out of the 18 Electoral Areas in the. From Table 1, there was a minimum of 35 randomly sampled respondents from each Electoral Area.
Table 1: Frequency distribution of respondents by Electoral Area
The table below shows the gender distribution for each of the sampled 14 Electoral Areas for the study (See Table 2).
Table 2: Distribution of respondents by Sex per Electoral Area
Sex distribution of respondents
An analysis of the sex variable shows a slight difference between sexes, with only a marginal majority female (50.1%) to male (49.9%) sex ratio. And this appears to mirror the 2021 Population and Housing Census (PHC) data which presented a near even male (49.3%) to female (50.7%) distribution [See Fig.1].
Figure 1: Proportional distribution of respondents by sex
Age
Results in Fig. 2 shows that more than four out of every ten (43.3%) respondents were young people age 18 years to 35 years. This is an indication that a significant proportion of the voter population in the Assin North Constituency are young people. That makes the youth a significant stakeholder who ought to be communicated to more deliberately. The elderly, age 61years (12.3%) and above were also a significant age category of interest.
Figure 2: Age distribution of respondents
Religion
Results from the data indicates that majority (87.7%) of the study participants are Christians. That can be translated to mean out of every ten (10) people of voting age in the Assin North Constituency, nearly nine (9) of them are Christians.
Figure 3: Proportional distribution of respondents by religious affiliation
Education
Relative to the levels of education attained by respondents, the results from the analyzed data of their educational attainment shows that nearly half (48.3%) of respondents have attained only primary school education. More than one out of ten (14.5%) of them have no formal education, whereas another fourth (25.0%) of respondents attained secondary level (Secondary, Vocational, and Technical) education. This phenomenon where nearly two-thirds (62.8%) of the voter population have only primary or no formal education at all is a cause for concern and must inform the communication approach and strategy to adopt by those contesting the elections.
Figure 4: Educational attainment
Occupation
Relative to respondents’ occupation, the results in Figure 5 indicates that the majority (43.9%) of them were employed in the agriculture sector, specifically, in farming and fishing. The people are mainly employed in the informal sector where traders account for the seconded largest proportion of occupation in the constituency.
Figure 5: Occupation of respondents
Voter registration status
Results from the data (See Fig. 6) shows that 97.8% of study participants were registered voters at the constituency.
Figure 6: Is respondent a Ghanaian registered to vote in the constituency
Previous Voting in 2020 Presidential Elections
To be able to understand respondents’ voting history and behavior, respondents were asked the question “Did you vote in the 2020 Presidential elections?”
The majority (91.1%) of respondents indicated that they had participated in the 2020 Presidential elections (See Fig. 7).
Figure 7: Respondent voted in the 2020 Presidential elections
Respondent’s preferred/chosen party in 2020 Presidential lections
Among those who answered “Yes” to previously voting in the 2020 Presidential elections, the question was asked “If yes, which political party did you vote for?”. According to the results in Fig.8, nearly two out of every three (65.4%) voters who took part in this survey indicated that they voted for the NPP Party.
Figure 8: If yes, the party respondent voted for in the 2020 Presidential elections
Previously voted in 2020 Parliamentary election
The study sought to find out if respondents took part in the last Parliamentary election. The question “Did you vote in the last Parliamentary election?” was asked. From Fig 9 , the majority (87.6%) of them responded “Yes” to the question.
Figure 9: Respondent voted in the 2020 Parliamentary elections
For those who answered Yes to the previous question, a follow up question “If yes which Parliamentary Candidate did you vote for?” was asked and 40.1% of respondents indicated that they voted for James Gyakye Quayson whiles 59.9% voted for Abena Durowaa Mensah (See Fig 10).
Figure 10: If yes, the Parliamentary Candidate respondent voted for in the 2020 Parliamentary elections
The survey sought to ascertain Respondents’ intention to vote in the upcoming by-elections, out of which 11.8% answered No and 88.2% answered Yes (See Fig.11).
Figure 11: Respondent likely to vote in the 2020 Parliamentary by-election in Assin North on 27th June 2023
Out of the total number of Respondents that answered Yes to the previous question of ‘Will you vote in the up-coming by-election?’, 43.3% revealed that they would vote for James Gyakye Quayson, another 1.2% for Bernice Enyonam Sefenu and the remaining 55.5% for Charles Opoku (See Fig. 12).
Figure 12: If yes, which Parliamentary Candidate respondent intends to vote for in the 2020 Parliamentary by-election in Assin North on 27th June 2023
When asked whether the government was performing creditably, 54.9% of respondents were of the view that government was performing creditably whiles 45.1% disagreed (See Fig.13)
Figure 13: Respondent thinks current Gov’t is performing creditably
Results below shows that 51.4% of respondents sampled for the study thought that the country was headed in the right direction as opposed to 48.6% who thought different.
Figure 14: Respondent thinks country is headed in the right direction
The chart below depicts the distribution of responses for which political party respondent thinks manages the Ghanaian economy better. Majority (58.7%) of respondents indicated that the NPP governments managed the economy better whiles 41.3% believed the NDC governments managed it better (See Fig 14).
Figure 15: Political party respondent thinks manages the economy better
The study sought to find out from respondents which party they would vote for if elections were held today. Majority (56.9%) of respondents revealed that they would vote for the NPP and 43.1% would rather vote for the NDC if elections were held today (See Fig. 16)
Figure 16: Party respondent will vote for if elections were held today
The chart below explains the likelihood of respondents to vote in coming Parliamentary by-election. Majority (70.7%) of respondents were Very Likely to vote expressing enthusiasm in participation. Some 15.0% were likely to vote , 7.7% did not know if they would be voting, and 6.5% have decided not to vote at all in the coming By-election (See Fig 17).
Figure 17: Likelihood of respondent to vote in upcoming Parliamentary by-election in Assin North Constituency on 27th June 2023
Respondents were asked if they were likely to change their mind about their preferred candidate by the 27 June 2023 by- election. Majority (79.9%) responded No to the question, whiles 20.1% said Yes (See Fig. 18).
Figure 18: Likelihood of respondent to have a change of mind regarding preferred candidate in the coming Parliamentary by-election in Assin North Constituency on 27th June 2023
Results below shows responses to the question ‘Do you know why Supreme Court ordered the removal of J.G. Quayson as MP for Assin North Constituency?’. Among the respondents, 84.6% said Yes whiles 15.4% of them indicated that they did not know why the Supreme Court ordered the removal of the Assin North MP from office (See Fig 19).
Figure 19: Respondent knows why Supreme Court ordered the removal of J.G. Quayson as MP for Assin North Constituency
